Zambia - a rare success story in Sub-Saharan Africa

How has Zambia managed to find its way in a region scarred by colonialism, resource dependency, and ethnic strife?

Written by Ben Kwasnik

Zambia is a landlocked country in Sub-Saharan Africa, blessed with the Victoria Falls - the largest waterfall in the world - the Kafue and Lower Zambezi National Parks, fertile farmland, and an abundance in copper. It is also neighboured by 3 of the 10 poorest countries in the world (by GDP per capita), and is set in a region marred by dictatorships, chronic inflation, and widespread corruption¹. Before the 2021 elections, Zambia looked to be on a similar to that of its neighbours; they were the largest Sub-Saharan African debtor to the IMF, their currency lost around 50% of its value in 2 years, and the incumbent president, Edgar Lungu, was displaying authoritarian tendencies². Now, however, Zambia has re-negotiated its debt with the IMF, their currency has gained around 20% of its value back - and was the best performing currency in 2022 - and the country has arrested its backslide away from democracy³. So, what has made Zambia stand out from its Sub-Saharan peers?

Prelude to the 2021 election

In 1964, Northern Rhodesia gained independence from the UK, and under its first President Kenneth Kaunda (KK), became Zambia. Kaunda had been a prisoner of the British before independence, and after becoming president, he installed a one-party system, claiming that a multi-party system would stoke ethnic tensions within the tribal country. KK is perhaps more popular amongst Zambians for his role after the presidency than during it; allowing a transition to power in 1991, and being at the forefront of the fight against HIV. Kaunda is considered the founding father of Zambia, and statues of him are regularly commissioned to this day. Before 2021, Zambia had seen two transitions of power, and for the region, was considered a peaceful nation with a stable democracy. 

This image of Zambia’s stable democracy began to fray under Edgar Lungu’s time in power. Lungu’s path to power came from his smart political positioning; when popular President Michael Sata died in 2014, Lungu claimed that he had been ‘annointed’ as the successor. He won the elections in 2016 by the narrowest of margins over his challenger, Hakainde Hichilema - whose party claimed that the results were fraudulent. The Carter Centre, a Think Tank named after US President Jimmy Carter, said that they were ‘extremely concerned’ about the integrity of the election⁴. The next 5 years would see an erosion of the neutrality of many of the institutions that had contributed to Zambia’s fledgling democracy. Lungu cracked down on freedom of speech, shutting down several newspapers, including The Post, and censuring others into reporting more favourably to him. Perhaps the most shocking incident came in 2017, with HH imprisoned for treason when his motorcade refused to give way to Lungu’s. He was imprisoned, placed in solitary confinement for 8 days, tortured, robbed, and beaten. During this time, Lungu declared a state of emergency, which allowed him to crack down on some protests, however he ultimately relented, allowing HH to be free 8 days after his imprisonment. Lungu also imprisoned opponents, and threatened the Supreme Court into removing term limits on him, allowing him to run for a 3rd term after the 2021 elections, should he win. 

Almost as worrying as the damage that Lungu did to Zambia’s politics, was the damage that he did to its economy. During Lungu’s time in power, Zambia’s foreign debt increased to around $17.5bn, owing large amounts of money to both the IMF and to China⁵. Indeed, the IMF recently concluded that this was due to widespread corruption by Lungu and his cronies; with several projects being inflated by as much as 200%, with the excesses stolen⁶. This landed Zambia in a debt-trap, with China increasing its ties within its economy; specifically its mining and energy sectors, often at favourable prices to them⁷. In 2020, Zambia defaulted on its debt, and the value of its currency lost around 40% up until mid 2021⁸. All of this made the 2021 elections a key one for Zambia’s fate. 

HH and the election

Hakainde Hichilema is Zambia’s wealthiest man; accruing his wealth through his cattle business, as well as serving as CEO of various companies. He came from a poor background, winning a scholarship to study economics and finance at the University of Lusaka, before doing his MBA in Birmingham, UK. Hichilema had contested 5 elections before 2021 - starting in 2006, when he finished 2nd, with 25% of the vote. After being defeated in 2016 by a narrow margin, Hichilema set his sights on winning the 2021 election, a feat which was made easier by Zambia’s economic malaise, and perception of corruption. Hichilema positioned himself as competent, fiscally responsible, and honest - compared to Edgar Lungu’s shortcomings, and while Lungu was able to mobilise some of his core support, Hichilema won by a very clear margin - with 59%, compared to Lungu’s 38%. The margin is doubly impressive given the conditions under which the election took place - with dissent being cracked down upon, and allegations of vote rigging by the incumbent. Lungu initially contested the results, claiming fraud, but stepped down and committed to a peaceful transition of power, after realising the size of the gap. 

After Hichilema’s election, Zambia has undergone something of a renaissance, and is certainly the envy of many citizens of neighbouring countries, like Zimbabwe, whose autocratic president declared “what happened in Zambia won’t happen here”⁹. Hichilema immediately repaired the damage done to the freedom of the press, ruling the ban on the Zambia Post unconstitutional, and firing authority leaders who had authorised violence against political opponents¹⁰. Hichilema has also vowed to tackle the corruption in the country, saying that it is at ‘horrific’ levels, and also pledging to involve more women in politics¹¹. Perhaps Hichilema’s best work has involved restructuring Zambia’s debt; renegotiating with both China and the IMF separately to allow a repayment plan to take place over a longer time scale. The BBC labeled this achievement ‘historic’, and stated that “By renegotiating the debt terms, Zambia gains valuable breathing space to stabilise its economy, implement necessary reforms and pursue long-term growth. This newfound flexibility can be redirected toward investment in healthcare, education, infrastructure and social welfare.¹²”

Still, despite these positives, challenges remain. Zambia is still an extremely poor country, with Habitat for Humanity noting that over 60% of the population lives below the poverty line. Further, while Zambia has renegotiated its debt, it is still in a lot of debt, and it will take time for them to pay it off. Lastly, Zambia as a major copper exporter is tied to the precious metal’s price, and with its copper production halting and the price dropping by around 10%, Zambia’s economy in the recent past has been struggling, with inflation reaching around 12.6%¹³. Inevitably for a Sub-Saharan nation, there will be growing pains, economic shocks, and problems with corruption, but it is fair to say that Zambia elected the right president in 2021; the positive developments that have occurred since then almost certainly would not have happened with Lungu as president. Zambia appears to be on the right path forwards, with economic growth forecast, and a democracy which is freer and fairer than most in the region. Hichilema’s challenge will be to ensure that he fully delivers on his pledges of rooting out corruption, strengthening the state institutions, and advocating for a free and fair electoral system that would not allow Zambia to slip back into autocracy, as it did under Lungu.

1. https://www.focus-economics.com/blog/the-poorest-countries-in-the-world/

2. https://developingeconomics.org/2020/11/24/haemorrhaging-zambia-prequel-to-the-current-debt-crisis/

3. https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=USD&To=ZMW

4. https://www.cartercenter.org/news/pr/zambia-091516.html

5. https://www.ft.com/content/24f46dbd-58a2-474e-badc-6156509bf42f

6. https://www.voanews.com/a/zambia-s-former-ruling-party-rejects-imf-allegation-of-corruption-under-lungu-/6915568.html

7. https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/dec/11/china-steps-in-as-zambia-runs-out-of-loan-options

8. https://odi.org/en/insights/four-lessons-from-zambias-emerging-debt-default/

9. https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=205734284770571

10. https://www.democratic-erosion.com/2022/03/07/zambias-precarious-democracy/

11. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-africa-58417008

12. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-65997830

13. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/zambia-moves-to-halt-world-s-worst-currency-fall-after-argentina-1.1994449