Pre-Modern Thailand
Unlike the vast majority of countries in South-East Asia, Thailand was never colonised. This was partly owing to geography - as it acted as a buffer zone between British Malaya, and French Indochina. It was also made more difficult to conquer owing to King Chulalongkorn’s state-building measures - he reformed Thailand from a feudalist kingdom with diffused power into a more modern state, with a professional army and a centralised government in Bangkok. Thailand also ran a neutral foreign policy - neither allying with the two major imperial powers in the area at the time, nor the native populations fighting the colonists1. By staying independent, Thailand was able to preserve its monarchy, alphabet, state institutions, and strong national consciousness.
All of these factors can still be seen today. Thailand continues to follow a policy of non-alignment - neither committing themselves to China or America’s sphere of influence. In addition, Thailand’s Bangkok-centric style of governance is still evident - with the country being considered one of the most centralised in the world. Perhaps the most important legacy of Thailand’s history is the central role of the monarchy in the nation’s national consciousness. King Vajiralongkorn is considered the wealthiest monarch in the world, and Thailand retains a draconian lese-majeste law, which makes it illegal to criticise the royal family.
The Siamese Revolution, and the following years
The royal family, along with the army, retain huge influence within the Thai state. Thailand became a constitutional democratic monarchy nearly 100 years ago after the Siamese Revolution, but a year later, the military and monarchy carried out a counter-coup, re-instating the monarch as the head of the state. Since 1932, Thailand's political landscape has been marked by a cycle of military juntas supported by the monarchy followed by weak, civilian-led governments unable to assert long-term authority. After WW2, there was a military dictatorship until 1973, and after only 3 years of democracy, the military intervened again with a coup. Democracy returned in 1991, but in 1997 Thailand, like many other South-East Asian countries, was hit by the Asian financial crisis, leading to its currency severely devaluating, increasing unemployment and poverty.
The Shinawatra Era
Since the turn of the century, Thai politics has been primarily shaped by two major forces: the billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra and the military, with support from the royal family. Shinawatra won a landslide in the 2001 election, and became the first Prime Minister to complete a full term in office. His economic policies were extremely popular, alleviating rural poverty by half, growing the national GDP by around 40%, introducing universal healthcare, all while reducing the national debt to GDP. His party won a landslide victory in 2005, but after selling his business for $2bn in 2006 and paying no tax on the profits, anger over perceived corruption became widespread, eventually resulting in a boycotted election, and a military coup - Shinawatra’s party was banned, and he entered a self-imposed exile, being sentenced to prison in absentia. Following civil disobedience, the military convened elections in 2007, resulting in Shinawatra’s chosen candidate winning by a slim margin. Four years later, Thaksin’s sister won a majority, however, she was ousted by a military coup in 2014. Endorsed by the king, the junta imposed their own constitution, introducing a 250-member senate, appointed by the military, who would vote for the Prime Minister alongside the 500-member democratically elected house4. This, in practice, made it nearly impossible for a non-military-backed candidate to win an election.
In 2016, the widely respected King Bhumibol passed away, and his son, who is less popular among the Thai people, ascended to the throne. Under his reign, the military and the royal family have cracked down upon dissent by frequently using the lese majeste law - arresting over 170 people in the last 3 years. This has led to increased disdain for the royal family, especially amongst young Thais, and the 2023 election took place against the backdrop of social and economic upheaval. For the first time since 2001, a party not endorsed by Shinawatra (The Move Forward Party) won a plurality of the votes - with 38%, with Shinawatra’s niece (of Pheu Thai) winning 26%. The ruling coalition won 12% of the vote, showing how unpopular they had become. The Move Forward Party campaigned on a radical platform, endorsing reforming the monarchy and abolishing the lese majeste rule - and capitalised on the anger against the military’s democratic backsliding. Both the Move Forward Party and Pheu Thai swore that they would not enter a coalition which supported a monarchist, military backed party, however the 250-member Senate refused to vote for either of these parties, and there was deadlock for months. Eventually, Pheu Thai reached an agreement with the military and monarchy, forming a government, and Thaksin finally returned to Thailand from his self-imposed exile.
A Path to Democracy?
Perhaps the most crucial factor that would allow Thailand to transition to a modern, democratic state, would be the decline in the role of the monarchy to a merely symbolic role, much like that of the UK or Norway’s. This change could come swiftly - as King Vajiralongkorn’s personal behaviour has diminished the monarchy's reputation. He has spent the majority of his time since 2016 living in Bavaria, rather than Thailand, which has prompted widespread protests - further, the increased usage of social media has allowed opinions to spread much quicker than before, leaving the government less room to censor opposition. His personal lifestyle has also enraged many Thais - he has taken a mistress and is seen with her openly in public - despite polygamy being banned in Thailand. Further, he flaunted COVID protocols when returning to Thailand, and has acted as above the law - even performing extra-judicial killings on opposition. Unlike his father, who was popular through veneration, King Vajiralongkorn's rule is characterized by a focus on instilling fear, which will likely lead to a further erosion of the monarchy’s reverence in Thai society.
King Vajiralonkorn in public with his mistress.
So where does Thailand go from here? Is there any escape from its doom loop of flipping from military juntas supported by the monarchy, to weak, democratic governments? Pita Limjaroenrat, leader of the Move Forward Party, certainly seems to believe so. Despite being thwarted from forming a government, and banned from entering Government House (on corruption charges), Pita believes that reform is inevitable, despite commenting that “Thailand is a half baked democracy … It’s a system of governance that allows elections, but it’s institutionalised anti-majoritarianism.” His hope comes from the fact that the majority of his voters were young, and that a societal shift against the monarchy is taking place, and will not end until lese majeste is abolished, and the King takes on a purely symbolic role. Pita is optimistic, and is correct about the societal and generational shifts on the opinion on the monarchy, and unlike most of the military establishment, is only 43. He is prepared for the long game, and says he has a plan should the military establishment ban him, and his party from politics. Thailand has many of the pre-requisites required for a democracy to flourish - a global, cosmopolitan capital, a relatively educated population with a high literacy rate, and a GDP Per Capita (adjusted for purchasing power parity) of $22,500, and should the lese majeste law be reformed, then Thailand could finally remove the authoritarian yoke to which it has been shackled. While time might be on Pita’s side, history most certainly is not, and the military establishment has proved remarkably resilient and dynamic in clinging on to power, and perhaps Thailand fits the adage “the more things change, the more they stay the same”.
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