Will Africa’s Cold War Get Hot? A Dive into the Congo Crisis
How the DRC’s East became the site of a Major Geopolitical Showdown
Protestors doused the Union Jack, the Tricolor, and Stars in Stripes in petrol last month and set them ablaze during fiery demonstrations in Goma. Situated in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s far east, the city of 2 million has delved into chaos in the new year as rebels from the M-23 militia close in. Refugee camps are being hastily erected, shells periodically rain down from the hills and prices are skyrocketing as the remaining routes from the city to the rest of the country become too dangerous to traverse.
Anger is boiling over for the people of Goma, with much of their ire being directed towards Western nations who they see as complicit in the deteriorating security situation. Much like the mortar shells screaming over their city streets, the geopolitical machinations of world powers are hitting close to home for Goma residents.
Tshisekedi vs. Kagame: Two Leaders Face Off
As crisis conditions grip the North Kivu region and its capital, Goma, the DRC’s leadership has laid the bulk of the blame at the feet of Rwanda and their Western supporters. In the last few months, President of the DRC Felix Tshisekedi has ramped up accusations and threats against Rwandan President Paul Kagame. He has compared his adversary to Hitler, and has promised that if Kagame’s support for the Congolese Tutsi M-23 rebels continues, he will meet a similar end.
Kagame, a poignant and measured statesman, has responded to the threats, stating, “Rwanda is not about exchanging insults" he added "that’s not us, but they (the DRC) will learn something, that they made a big mistake. Absolutely a big mistake".
Despite their opaqueness, the escalating threats have alarmed leaders across Africa who are urging the two parties towards dialogue. With a potential major inter-state war looming on the horizon, it's critical to take a step back and analyze the decades of buildup to this moment.
A Long History made Short
The conflict of today is tied to events spanning centuries, but no singular incident has been as impactful on the region’s instability as the Rwandan Genocide. One hundred years of colonial-orchestrated ethnic grievances came to a head in 1994 when the Tutsi minority, and its rebel group headed by Kagame, were blamed for assassinating the Hutu Presidents of Rwanda and Burundi. The resulting violence would be enshrined as one of humanity’s cruelest moments, as in just one hundred days nearly 800,000 Tutsis were massacred by their Hutu neighbors.
Emerging from the bush with a mandate from the international community to restore order and bring the genocide to a close, Kagame’s forces poured into the disintegrating country. The counteroffensive was a bloody affair resulting in the deaths of tens of thousands. Fearing a genocide themselves, more than a million Hutus fled West into Zaire (now DRC). This displacement, while stabilizing Rwanda, triggered the first Congo War in 1996 as Rwandan forces pursued Hutu militants over the border and invaded Zaire.
The resulting conflict grew and metastasized as numerous state actors committed forces behind the duelling sides. In the end, Kagame’s RPF humiliated their neighbor, marching all the way to its capital of Kinshasa and deposing the Congolese dictator Mobutu. Zaire ceased to exist, and the DRC came into being in its wake.
Despite the new title, the same grievances persisted and a devastating Second Congo War developed. This conflict greatly eclipsed the First Congo War in brutality and scope, taking an unfathomable 2.6 to 5.4 million lives. In 2003, the Second Congo War officially ended and the DRC’s neighbors withdrew back over the internationally recognized borders.
A semblance of stability ensued in the DRC’s West under the Presidency of notoriously corrupt Joseph Kabila. His deeply unpopular reign came to a close in 2019 as Felix Tshisekedi ascended to the top post in the nation’s first peaceful transfer of power.
The Looming Conflict of 2024
With 70% of the vote in a relatively legitimate 2024 re-election, Tshisekedi has gained the approval of the public to follow through on his promise to end the lingering Eastern conflict by any means necessary. Tshisekedi has made it clear that full war with Rwanda is not off the table.
To the Congolese side, Kagame is far from the benevolent and progressive leader the West has touted him as. Rather, he is a dictator and radical who ordered the downing of Rwanda’s Presidential jet in 1994, setting off the genocide and the ensuring refugee crisis. Further, he has invaded the nation twice and continues to covertly supply Tutsi insurgencies such as the M-23 movement. Using these rebel groups, Kagame has siphoned billions in minerals out of the DRC and into his pockets. Now, Kagame has taken it a step further, pushing his puppet forces to the outskirts of Goma, the DRC’s fourth largest city.
Rwandans tell a much different story. To the vast majority of his citizens, Kagame is a national hero who was cleared of links to the plane assassination. It was Kagame who ended the horrific genocide, charted a visionary reconciliation program and initiated a period of exceptional economic growth and development. In the face of FDLR Hutu extremism emanating out of the DRC, Kagame has defended the nation with multiple interventions while forming crucial international alliances. Now, he stands strong against a Congolese bully to the West.
Despite holding seemingly irreconcilable positions, Angola-brokered talks are poised to begin between the two embattled leaders. Kagame and Tshisekedi are far from the only actors with a stake in this game as an invisible contest between major powers is unfolding for the Eastern DRC’s incredible mineral wealth.
“The total mineral wealth of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is estimated to be some $24 trillion”
The Global Race for the Congo’s Riches
For the people of the Eastern Congo, little has changed since colonization. Mass exploitation persists as Gold, Cobalt and the precious 3T minerals have supplanted rubber and ivory as the lucrative commodities to pilfer. For modern global supply chains in the midst of an energy transition, many of these minerals are priceless.
European, Chinese, and American companies are fiercely competing for the minerals of the future. So far, China is emerging as the clear frontrunner as their companies and investors have asserted control over 70% of the country’s mining sector. Much of this influence was consolidated under Kabila’s reign as he traded the nation’s resource wealth for Chinese development funds, billions of which went ‘missing’.
Much to the chagrin of the West, Tshisekedi has pursued the policies of his predecessor. In a deal this year, China will provide $7 Billion to the DRC’s State coffers for a massive mining contract. Such a significant figure could be transformative in a nation with extremely poor infrastructure where only 19% of the population has consistent electricity. However, the lack of conditionality and a history of corrupt dealings would suggest that a majority of this sum will not end up benefiting the people.
From The Great Rift Valley to Silicon Valley
To circumvent Chinese suppliers who dominate the trade, Elon Musk sought out a deal with Swiss Company Glencore to source cobalt and nickel for Tesla’s batteries in 2020. Despite speculation that Glencore’s mining operations were far more ethical than their Chinese counterparts, the corporation has been found to be a serial abuser of Congolese labor. In fact, Glencore was found to be amongst the worst labor abusers in the entire commodity industry. In addition, they have pled guilty to dozens of corruption charges, forcing a payout to the DRC of $180 million. A 2019 lawsuit alleges that Google, Apple, and Microsoft are also complicit in Glencore’s slavery-adjacent practices.
Tech companies and Western Governments are faced with a difficult predicament. On one hand, they need the DRC’s resources to maintain their supply chains and complete the green-transition, on the other hand, their public image can’t afford connections to slavery and reliance on China. Thus, an ideal partner emerges: Rwanda, an aspiring middle-income nation of good global repute.
Where Does Rwanda get its Riches?
Last month, the EU announced that a Memorandum of Understanding has been forged with Rwanda to build ‘sustainable raw materials supply chains’, greenlighting the way for greater European corporate involvement with the nation. The EU Commissioner for Internal Market pitched the significance of the pact, stating, “Rwanda is an important provider of tantalum, tin, tungsten, gold and niobium, and has potential for lithium and rare earth elements”.
This development follows in line with cooperation agreements forged between Rwanda and the US / UK. One such agreement, in which the UK would trade Britain-bound migrants for millions in development funds, has caused a major political controversy. As this potential deal has developed, Rwanda-UK trade has doubled, with an exponential rise expected in the coming years.
As trade flourishes between the West and Rwanda, the source of Rwanda’s mineral exports comes into question. According to reports, exports of gold rose 754.6% from 2019-2020. This incredible success raised eyebrows internationally as Rwanda’s mining sector has been characterized as ‘small’ and ‘informal’. This remarkable rise also happens to coincide with the battlefield successes of the Tutsi M-23 rebel movement one nation over.
The M-23 movement captured two major mining towns in North Kivu last month, adding Coltan to the list of the many minerals they can extract to fund their war effort. Utilizing captured soldiers and enslaved locals, M-23 operates dozens of mines in the region. The warlords then offload these precious riches via intermediaries in Rwanda, where they are refined and sold internationally. Many of these riches end up in the United Arab Emirates, where massive discrepancies in volumes of Rwanda mineral imports have been documented.
According to the DRC’s finance minister, $1 Billion in riches are stolen through Rwanda via M-23 each year. Such allegations have led Western officials such as Emanuel Macron and Anthony Blinken to urge Rwanda to end its support for the rebel group. These officials have yet to sanction or punish the country for its alleged transgressions however.
Hard Minerals, Harder Truths
Despite their involvement, the exploitation of the DRC’s minerals and people is not a problem which can be solely attributed to Rwanda or its connected militias. The crisis is endemic as dozens of rebel groups, ranging from Islamic fundamentalists to Katanganese separatists have seized control over thousands of miles of mineral rich territories. The DRC’s own government soldiers have been often linked to warlordism and mineral extractivism. As its own forces pilfer the interior, the ‘stable’ West of the nation stagnates and crumbles as billions in State revenues are lost to corruption each year.
Prolific and embedded corruption is much more difficult to face than a familiar external foe which the nation can rally against. Thus, Tshisekedi has identified Rwanda as the common enemy to defeat. Whether he chooses the route of diplomacy or total war remains to be seen. What is certain is that global actors from Elon Musk to Xi Jinping will be watching closely as the control of trillions in wealth could be determined by a Third Congo War.