Uproar in Türkiye - Will We See A Return to Kemalism?
The arrest of one of Türkiye's most popular politicians has sparked massive protests across the country. Erdoğan's political future may be at stake.
By Laurits Bugge, Copenhagen
Last week, Türkiye was rocked by a political earthquake. Ekrem İmamoğlu, the Mayor of Istanbul and a key figure within the main opposition party, the Republican People's Party (CHP), was arrested at his home by local police on Wednesday morning. On Sunday, he was formally charged and taken into custody pending trial.
A video on X shows İmamoğlu preparing for the encounter: he is getting dressed, calmly, while addressing his supporters: “There are hundreds of police officers at our door” - he said in the video, posted to his personal account, and added: “We are up against tyranny, but I will not be discouraged”.
The arrest occurs at a pivotal moment in Turkish politics. In recent years, the CHP has gained significant momentum, while President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) has faced various setbacks, such as the loss of political power in Istanbul - Türkyie’s largest and most important city. The AKP and its Islamically conservative predecessor had previously controlled the city for 25 years, but suffered an unexpected defeat to İmamoğlu in 2019, and again in 2024, when İmamoğlu emerged victorious once more.
The loss of Istanbul in 2019 was particularly bitter for Erdoğan himself, as he shares a deep personal connection to the city. It was here that he began his political career, serving as mayor from 1994 to 1998. At the time, he was a member of the Welfare Party (RP), an Islamically conservative party that would later go on to be banned in 1998 for violating the principle of separation between religion and state.
The formal charges against İmamoğlu include allegations of corruption and having links to the Kurdish militant political group, PKK, which is recognized as a terrorist organization by Türkiye, the USA, and the European Union. These charges come in the wake of the revocation of İmamoğlu’s university degree, due to alleged irregularities. The revocation, which occurred merely a day before the arrest, crucially prevents the mayor from running for president, as having a university degree is a requirement for occupying Türkiye’s highest office.
A further 100 arrest warrants were similarly issued for multiple of İmamoğlu’s advisors, a prominent journalist, businessmen and several other officials of the CHP, most of whom have been taken into custody.
The opposition has moved quickly to condemn the arrests as being politically motivated, arguing that they constitute a direct order of Erdoğan. They claim that they can be perceived as a response from Erdoğan against the perceived threat of İmamoğlu’s rising popularity, which some suggest could propel him to the presidency in 2028. While Erdoğan is constitutionally barred from running again in the 2028 elections, as per the Turkish constitution, he has repeatedly floated the possibility of constitutional changes this year, further adding to the concerns of the opposition.
Despite a four-day ban on demonstrations imposed by the local governor, the arrest has sparked mass protests across Istanbul. In major cities throughout Türkiye, people—led by young students—have taken to the streets to protest the country's ongoing democratic backsliding, which has led to the erosion of political rights and civil liberties, as highlighted by organizations like Freedom House. Many Turks are labeling the arrest a coup against their democracy, and also use the occasion to express their frustration over the state of the economy, growing corruption, and the frequent use of the judiciary to target political opposition. Since 2018, Türkiye has been classified as “not free” by democratic watchdog organisations, including Freedom House.
This isn't the first time that prominent opposition leaders have been arrested in Türkiye. In 2016, Selahattin Demirtaş, the former leader of the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), was detained and later sentenced to over 40 years in prison, on charges of alleged ties to the Kurdish militant group PKK. More recently, Ümit Özdağ, the current leader of the Victory Party, was arrested in January of this year after publicly insulting Erdoğan, on charges of "publicly inciting hatred and hostility.”
A Rising Star
Since his mayoral victory in 2019, İmamoğlu has been regarded as a rising star in Turkish politics. His initial win, however, faced significant challenges. The 2019 electoral result was annulled by Türkiye’s electoral board, after the ruling AKP had appealed to the board, citing concerns about alleged voter fraud. İmamoğlu, nonetheless, went on to win re-election by an even greater margin. The mayor has remained in office for the past six years, and in 2024, he handed Erdoğan and his ruling party their most significant defeat in over two decades when he secured his re-election.
Turning to the national level, in the May 2023 presidential elections, the CHP came in second. The elections came a few months after a devastating earthquake hit eastern Türkiye. The sheer scale of the destruction exposed a deep-seated corruption in the country’s building sector and pointed to a failure in enforcing stricter building regulations, promised by the authorities, in the wake of the deadly 1999 İzmit earthquake. Some analysts suggest that a storm of disinformation was used to secure Erdoğan’s re-election. The election, which saw CHP Party Leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, leading the "Table of Six" coalition, with İmamoğlu as one of his two vice-presidential candidates, became the closest in Turkish history, with the CHP losing by about 4%.
If İmamoğlu manages to run for president in 2028, he could become a serious contender to Erdoğan. He is one of the most popular politicians in Türkiye, and observers commend him on his relaxed and eloquent nature. They also cite his appeal to different social groups, where he calls for a more inclusive style of politics that does not discriminate or offend. If he were to win the presidency, it would mark the first time the CHP returned to power in 45 years.
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The CHP - Atatürk’s Party
Mustafa Kemal, widely known as Atatürk, became the first president of Türkiye after the Turkish War of Independence, which followed in the wake of WWI. Atatürk subsequently held the presidency until his death in 1938. Atatürk played a pivotal role in transforming the country into a modern state by adopting and strictly enforcing Western civil and criminal laws, as well as commercial practices, intending to establish Türkiye as a Western nation in the eyes of the world.
Through a series of broad reforms, Atatürk modernized the country - albeit in the ‘Western’ sense of the word. These reforms included the introduction of state secularism modeled upon the French laïcité, which included a ban on religious attire in public institutions, the latinization of the Turkish alphabet, encouraging women to abandon traditional Islamic clothing, and the introduction of women's suffrage. Innovative as much as they were disruptive - and divisive - the reforms shared one goal: To reshape Turkish society.
To this day, the CHP continues to uphold Atatürk’s ideology, known as Kemalism.
Historically, the Turkish military regarded itself as the protector of Kemalism, the secular Turkish state, and the pro-Western ideals inherent in Kemalist ideology. On several occasions, it intervened to overthrow the government whenever it deemed that the administration was straying too far from Kemalist principles. The military was a dominant force in Turkish politics up until the failed coup of July 15, 2016, which aimed to overthrow President Erdoğan. The conspirators justified the coup by citing the erosion of secularism, the decline of democracy, and widespread corruption within the Turkish Republic.
It is important to note that this stewardship of Kemalist ideals has not always been bloodless. The Turkish military has a long history of using coups as a political tool, controversially acting as kingmaker by deposing several democratically elected governments throughout the 20th century. The bloody coup of 1980, in particular, has left a deep and lasting scar on the public’s memory.
The failure of the putchists in the 2016 coup led to significant changes in Türkiye's political landscape. The state transitioned to a new presidential system, concentrating vast political power in the hands of the president as various political, institutional, and constitutional checks were dismantled. The military has since been fully neutralized and is no longer regarded as wielding any significant influence in Turkish politics.
İmamoğlu, himself a Kemalist, advocates for a return to the founding ideals of the Turkish Republic established by Atatürk.
A Return To Kemalism?
İmamoğlu and Erdoğan represent the two main political divides in contemporary Turkish politics, embodying starkly contrasting visions for the country. If the CHP were to regain power, we could see a reversal of recent political changes by reducing the concentration of power in the president’s office and recommitting Türkiye to a more secular, ‘Western-style’ democracy, while one does wonder what that means these days. Some polls show that growing numbers of Turks are starting to favour the CHP over Erdoğan. Both parties are currently polling around 30%, with the CHP leading in some surveys.
On the other hand, Erdoğan has steered the country toward an increased Islamic revival, gradually eroding the secular foundations of the state since rising to power. Some of Atatürks more controversial laws, such as the ban on scarves for students, lawyers, and journalists, were revoked by Erdoğan, however, amid much criticism. Erdoğan defended his actions, insisting that he was protecting Muslims' right to freely express their religion. Religious schools and the Presidency of Religious Affairs (Diyanet) have also come to play a greater role in the educational system, while religious content has been increasingly incorporated into regular academic high schools. Policy changes like these have greatly appealed to a large conservative population, which has felt marginalized by a more secular elite since the country’s founding in the 1920s.
Returning to the events of today, the arrest could be considered ‘the nuclear option’ from Erdoğan, signalling that he views the CHP in general, and İmamoğlu in specific, as a major threat to his rule, despite him looking untouchable a decade ago.
İmamoğlu was formally elected as the CHP’s presidential candidate this past Sunday, despite being in jail, as he was the only candidate on the ballot. The vote saw a huge turnout, as the CHP opened the polls to the public, beyond its members, with İmamoğlu receiving over 14 million 850 thousand votes, according to party chairman Özgür Özel, in a post on X. However, these data have not been corroborated by independent sources.
The party has since the arrest called for mass protests, and continues to do so, arguing that the recent developments constitute a coup against “President Ekrem” (their new nickname İmamoğlu). The CHP has urged opposition parties to boycott the country’s next presidential election if President Erdoğan decides to run for re-election.
Much focus will be on the release of new polls from Türkiye, to gauge the public's reaction to these new developments, and to assess whether the CHP can effectively capitalize on the drumming up of support, generated by İmamoğlu’s arrest.
The sheer extent and intensity of the protests could also serve as a marker outright, as the arrest has sparked some of the biggest protests in over a decade. Tuesday saw them continuing for the seventh night in a row, and they have spread to other major cities like Ankara and Izmir. Erdogan has since condemned both the CHP and the protests, calling them a “movement of violence”. Over a thousand protesters have already been arrested, and videos have surfaced of violent clashes between police and protesters, with officers using rubber bullets and tear gas while protesters have retaliated with fireworks. The scale of these protests may provide us with a glimpse into the future, and the potential fate of Erdoğan and the AKP in the next presidential elections, due to be held in 2028.
Laurits Bugge is a History graduate from the University of Copenhagen, fascinated by political history from the 20th century