The Real Story Behind COP 28’s Failure:
An Investigation into the Gulf States' Subversions of Global Governance
They’ve built the world’s largest buildings, raised islands from the sea, amassed trillions in wealth, and now, they are setting their sights on infiltrating and undermining international governing bodies.
The last two weeks, citizens from around the globe turned their attention to COP 28, the UN’s annual Climate Conference. Leaders, representatives, tech moguls, celebrities, and even King Charles himself flew thousands of miles to attend this esteemed event with the aim of fostering consensus on humanity’s greatest existential threat. The Dubai based conference, however, has done anything but promote bold and revolutionary green policies. Instead, it has offered Gulf monarchs the chance to rub shoulders with world elites, cultivate oil deals, and greenwash their horrific climate and human rights records.
This conference is not an isolated event, rather, it typifies the new normal. Oil-rich states in the Gulf have bought their way into prestigious positions in some of the world’s foremost international organizations and will continue to play hosts to some of the largest and most crucial events. Their rising prominence in international organizations is compromising the integrity of global climate action, international law, and sport alike.
COP 28: A Suspicious Selection
The COP “Conference of the Parties'' is a series of negotiations that occur annually through the UN’s Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Global governments, businesses, and members of civil society gather to formulate collective policy to combat the climate crisis. Past agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement arose out of previous COP iterations and have been widely perceived as notable achievements in the global fight against climate change. Although the compliance mechanisms of past agreements have been scrutinized, the agreements nonetheless serve as useful frameworks and have generated public pressure for nations to meet their emissions targets.
Scholars have suggested that the location of the conferences is paramount to their success as host nations have a significant impact on tone, direction, and results. Thus, the United Arab Emirates selection for COP 28 came as a shock to activists and leaders around the world. Monarchic petro-states certainly don’t top the list for locations to host conferences strategizing decarbonization. The choice eroded hopes worldwide in the conference’s ability to draft constructive global climate policy.
The selection of the UAE calls into question the integrity of the voting process. The choice of the UAE as host was decided behind closed doors by a ‘consensus’ of the UNFCCC’s rotating regional council. It is plausible that the UAE approached the bid process in the same manner in which Qatar did in their winning 2022 FIFA World Cup bid. Several in-depth investigations have revealed how Qatar swayed the FIFA vote’s result by using direct payments to voting members among other geo-political tools. The World Cup, although highly controversial, was a major success for Qatar and their fraudulent actions went unpunished. Years passed before the true scale of corruption in the bidding process was revealed. It is doubtful that the UAE stumbled upon this conference out of chance. Rather, it is much more likely that they implemented similar tactics as Qatar did in their bid process in order to plunge the world’s foremost climate conference into chaos.
A Masterclass in Gaslighting
Sultan Al-Jaber, CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, and President of COP 28, addressed the esteemed conference attendees on the first day with a backdrop reading “Decarbonising. Faster. Together”. In his speech he claimed that the global oil and gas industries are central to solving the climate crisis, and that their efforts are unfortunately being overlooked by the masses. His opening remarks were laden with hollow buzzwords generated in energy industry brainstorm sessions. Some optimistic commentary remained however, perhaps the oil sheikhs were gaining self-awareness and preparing to phase out fossil-fuels. These optimists were annihilated by Al-Jaber’s comments midway through the conference:
"There is no scientific basis indicating the need for a fossil fuel phase-out to limit global heating to 1.5C…Unless you want to take the world back into caves."
To say Al-Jaber has a conflict of interest in heading a climate summit is an understatement of historic magnitude. ADNOC, the state-owned firm he heads, pumps ~4 million barrels a day and has ambitions to dramatically increase production in the next five years. Alongside an increase in production, the company aims to develop sophisticated infrastructure and comprehensive networks worldwide to achieve even greater profits.The conference presented a massive opportunity for ADNOC to peddle directly to the powerful and strengthen their global network. Leaked UAE briefing documents, obtained by the Center for Climate Reporting, directed Emirati officials to prioritize oil and gas deals above all else during meetings with foreign leaders. The documents show intentions to offer Germany natural gas deals as their war-induced energy crisis persists. Other efforts were aimed towards China, Canada, and Australia.
In addition to promoting deals, additional leaks revealed an intended coordination with fellow OPEC members and lobbyists to push against decarbonization. Letters revealed that oil-rich countries coordinated to prevent any potential breakthroughs through a combination of obfuscation, economic fear mongering, and green-washing. To complement the OPEC collusion, nearly 500 carbon-capture industry lobbyists were invited to the event to advocate for technologies which have yet to be proven.
One purported success of the conference was an agreement to create a fund for countries harmed by natural disasters. A meager $420 million was committed to this fund. This contribution is essentially insignificant as experts estimate the windfall from climate related disasters could surpass $230 billion a year. The second alleged success of the conference was the announcement on behalf of 50 multinational oil and gas corporations in which they outlined plans to significantly reduce their methane emissions. This measure is non-binding and mainly concerns itself with preventing methane leaks during production. Several civil society organizations have dismissed the announcement, stating that it is yet another attempt to greenwash the fossil-fuel industry.
The conclusion of COP 28 was marked by tumult, disappointment, and frustration. Several draft deals proposed by Al-Jaber were met with strong backlash for their soft and permissive stances on fossil fuels. The final deal appeared to compromise, instead of calling for a “phase-out” of fossil-fuels it advocates for a “transition away” from them. The consensus deal was perhaps a small step in the right direction, but it is a far cry from a decisive achievement against carbon industries.
The shortcomings and subversions of the Conference were to be expected. The hosts directed the discussion in a circle upon itself and took their chance in the spotlight to sell oil, buy influence, and generate a fictional world where carbon does not actually contribute to global warming. Of course, The UAE had no intentions of hosting a truly progressive climate conference. Their economic and national interests are completely antithetical to decarbonization efforts. Unfortunately, their ritzy publicity stunt comes at the cost of the world’s future. By utilizing this crucial forum to promote their own fossil-fuel companies, obfuscate the truth, and promote a diluted agreement, the UAE has undermined an important global opportunity to formulate innovative policy regarding climate change.
A Criminal Inherits the Mantle of Top Cop
The UN has not been the only international organization compromised by the interests of the UAE. Interpol, the international police organization which helps coordinate transnational law enforcement efforts and track international fugitives, has fallen prey to infiltration by the Emirati regime. Interpol’s selected President is UAE Major General of Interior, Ahmed Naser Al-Raisi. His two years as head have been filled with serious accusations and lawsuits. France’s anti-terror prosecution unit has opened probes into the General for the alleged torture of political prisoners and detainees. In one instance, he was implicated in the torture of a British student who was studying UAE law enforcement practices for his thesis paper.
Interpol’s mission and effectiveness is severely diminished by the appointment of Al-Raisi. Interpol operates under a human rights framework and asserts a commitment to ensuring that law enforcement agencies worldwide are cooperating to those standards. Al-Raisi heading Interpol signals to countries around the world that brutal, extrajudicial, and abusive police behavior is tolerated when money is involved. In addition, concerns have arisen that Interpol’s red notice system, which raises international alerts on important fugitives, is being abused by autocratic regimes to crack down on political dissidents.
The Beautiful Game Goes Gulf
Major human rights abuses, a corrupt bidding process, anti-LGBTQ laws, and a ban on alcohol made Qatar’s FIFA 2022 World Cup the most controversial sporting event of all time. Football fans breathed a sigh of relief knowing the next two World Cup’s would be held in North America and then Iberia/South America. However, this relief has been short lived as Saudi Arabia has emerged as the sole bidder for the 2034 World Cup. All of the controversies surrounding Qatar’s tournament will be replicated in the years leading up to yet another Gulf State World Cup.
The coming World Cup is all part of Saudi Arabia’s greater mission to ‘sportswash’ their image. Saudi Arabia has invested hundreds of billions of dollars into golf, football, and racing to construct the world’s best leagues and attract the world’s greatest players. So far they have been incredibly successful. Saudi Arabia now hosts the world’s foremost Golf League (LIV) and some of the most iconic footballers in history such as Ronaldo and Neymar.
In an interview with Fox News, Mohammad bin Salman proudly acknowledged this strategy:
"If sportswashing is going to increase my GDP by 1%, then we will continue doing sportswashing… I don't care. I have 1% growth in GDP from sport, and I am aiming for another 1.5%. Call it whatever you want”
While Saudi Arabia crafts a new image based around sport and celebrity, human rights abuses go unchallenged. In the last year alone Saudi Arabia has executed dozens of individuals in its Shari'ah courts, murdered hundreds of migrants at its borders, sentenced citizens to death for tweets, and has perpetuated codified discrimination against women and girls amongst other injustices.
Are International Organizations Finished?
The infiltration and manipulation of the UNFCCC, Interpol, and FIFA by nefarious Gulf actors beggars the question if international organizations are completely compromised. These instances have demonstrated that control over important global structures in climate, law, and sport are increasingly shifting away from the Western World and towards the highest bidders. This trend is unlikely to revert in the foreseeable future. The World may just have to come to terms with petro-power in international governance.