Newsletter Week 4 - Trump advances towards the White House, but what difference can he actually make?
Where does Trump have power to change the system, and where does he not?
This week, Donald Trump’s probabilities of reaching the presidency soared. As per Polymarket, Trump now has a 65% chance of winning the election, aided by support from Elon Musk’s $1m a day giveaways to voters in swing states, voters preference for Trump on economic grounds, and a collapse in Harris’ momentum, particularly amongst ethnic minority voters. However, would President Trump be able to break from the status quo even should he win?
In terms of foreign policy, Trump nominally has different aims to Biden and Harris - particularly on Ukraine. In practice, however, tranches of aid to Ukraine are voted through congress, rather than awarded via the President himself, meaning that aid for Ukraine would become another bargaining chip in both the house and the senate; further it is difficult to conceive of either the bulk of the democrat or the republican party approving of closer ties with Russia, despite Trump’s own personal affinity to Vladimir Putin.Â
Regarding Israel, Trump’s rhetoric is much more hawkish than Biden’s or Harris’, but it appears that the current president is so weak and feeble that he has little direction over policy anyway. By continuously providing Israel with arms, and not opposing their escalations in Gaza or Lebanon, the Pentagon has already de facto signalled to Israel that they have carte blanche to escalate against Iran, with American support. And with China and North Korea, reconciliation appears impossible, and neither country will act differently based on Trump being president - in their view, he will be gone in four years, but their regimes will still be standing for decades.Â
The President’s greatest role in American life, rather than making a difference to the economy or foreign policy, is in fact socially. America is at a crossroads in its culture wars, with a black woman facing an old, white man who has insulted almost every minority imaginable, and has crossed so many rubicons to the point that his once-unthinkable comments have become commonplace and acceptable. A Trump victory would be a defeat for causes such as immigration (especially undocumented immigration), abortion rights, and trans rights, with his supreme court appointments likely to bolster the conservative bench for generations.Â
The fact that America could be about to elect a president who claims that the last election results were fraudulent is monumental for the future of the country. It would show a complete breakdown in trust in the electoral system, and weaken democracy as America knew it. Never before has an election been contested on the grounds that it was rigged. It would show just how much the average voter has lost respect for the Democratic establishment, and how little faith there is in American institutions. Overall, whatever one’s take on Trump, the fact that he is favourite to win the American election points to a country that is extremely socially divided, and where faith in democracy itself is in very ill-health indeed.Â
Photo(s) of the Week:
This photo is from Lake Chapala, in Jalisco, about an hour south of Guadalajara. The photo itself is taken from a town called Ajijic, famous for its natural thermal springs, excellent views, and for being a favourite of so-called snowbirds, typically Americans or Canadians who spend their winters in warmer climes. Sadly, the lake’s volume is at an ever lower level, and it is receding slightly every year, amidst a severe drought. Not all of this is due to climate change - poor infrastructure in Mexico exacerbates the problem, as a great deal of water is lost due to poor management, a problem which plagues Mexico City and Lima as well. However, rising temperatures are by far the number one cause for this phenomenon.Â
During the COVID-19 pandemic, I was struck by the rapid reaction to the illness which is estimated to have had a fatality rate of around 0.7%, the majority of whose victims were over age 80, and had several other comorbidities present. All around the world, countries entered into harsh lockdowns, throttling the economy for the sake of public health. While the measures were motivated by avoiding complete collapse of the public health system, the fear of COVID meant that the public were willing to pause the economy, isolate from their friends and family, stop sending their children to school, and see governments incur enormous debts in order to combat the issue. Climate change seemed to me then, and still seems to me now, a much bigger issue, one which will cause desertification, flooding, mass migration, droughts, famine, pollution, loss of natural habitats, and untold destruction. However, the psychology of responding to the issue of COVID was that the problem was here, and now, and needed to be dealt with. Climate change is often portrayed with melting ice caps, and a cry of ‘think of the polar bears!’ - that is to say, it is a phenomenon which is far away, and will only have its effects in the future. Perhaps if the messaging were altered to show that climate change is happening right here, right now, more action would be taken on it.Â

Weekly Recommendations:
Azerbaijan Updates: Azerbaijan throws climate journalists in jail ahead of Cop29, CodaStory
Israel-US relations: Netanyahu said to have offered Lewinsky tapes for Pollard, Times of Israel
Russia-Ukraine War: North Korean troops in Ukraine are a dangerous escalation, The New Statesman
US Election: Why Native Americans don’t vote Presidential races mean nothing on the reservation, UnHerd
Just one note regarding the first paragraph, I would not use polymarket as a reliable indicator on who will win the election. Polymarkets odds are skewed heavily due to a small number of individuals who have placed large bets and *could* have less than innocent motives. By all reliable accounts this election seems to be a toss up.