A Continent on the Brink: Why Chaos in the Sahel Could Change Africa Forever
Coups, Conflicts and Chaos have Spread Across Africa
From the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea, a cascade of military coups has radically reshaped African politics, overturning the balance of power across a vast expanse of the continent known as the Sahel. 7 successful coups have been pulled off since 2020 as revolting military factions have seized power across the ‘Coup Belt’. The fates of nearly 150 million people hang in the balance as a precarious power struggle unfolds between unelected juntas, breakaway ethnic groups and islamic extremists. In the face of this chaos, a geopolitical battle is simultaneously underway as Russia, France, China, and the United States chomp at the bit for a say in the future of the continent.
The Revolt Against France:
The Sahel region is no stranger to government overthrow, however, this recent string of revolts has a rather unprecedented character to it. Rather than simply reflecting power struggles within military hierarchies, many of the coups have advanced the creation of a new era in African politics, free from France and its collaborating dictators.
Of the coup locations, six of seven were once French colonies. France, unlike some of its colonial counterparts, managed to maintain its presence following decolonization through a policy known as Françafrique. Since 1960, France has conducted 120 military engagements in the region, cemented control over its valuable natural resources through their corporations, and enforced a France-benefitting currency system on the ‘independent nations’. However, France now faces an unprecedented unified revolt.
After over a hundred years of French economic and political interference, anti-French sentiments reached a fever-pitch in formerly-colonized nations. These notions have been especially pronounced in the Western Sahel where France has been embroiled in a prolonged military engagement against islamic terror groups since 2014. In ten years, French forces have been unable to dislodge the insurgents who continue to perpetrate massacres, car bombings, and assassinations across the region.
Anger towards the counterterrorism mission’s failure was compounded by several cases of wayward airstrikes which resulted in the deaths of dozens of civilians. France’s futile operation was the last straw for a region which was subjected to the horrors of French colonization and Françafrique. Military juntas in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso promptly ejected French forces and diplomats from their nations after overthrowing a Franco-sympathetic political class.
Serving as the face of a new anti-French coalition of nations, 36 year old junta leader and self-appointed President of Burkina Faso, Ibrahim Traoré, has become a celebrity across the continent. Channeling the look and dialect of famous Marxist and anti-imperialist Thomas Sankara, Traoré has renounced neo-imperialism, committed to nationalizing the country’s resources, and is promoting Pan-Africanism to unify Africa against the West. In tandem with Mali and Niger, he seeks to unite the three nations under the “Alliance of the Sahel”.

This new alliance seeks to unite the three nations politically and monetarily, potentially paving the way for the creation of a new nation altogether. Their new confederation aims to abandon the CFA Franc, form a new currency unattached from the Euro, demote the French language, and stand together militarily against external threats. This alliance was formed partially to deter further French intervention but also as a response to the Economic Community of West African States posturing. ECOWAS, the “EU” of West Africa, suspended the Sahel alliance and Guinea from their economic union following the coups, contending that the juntas do not represent the will of the people. ECOWAS even threatened to invade Niger to restore the former government. This intervention ultimately failed to manifest and instead a tense stagnation has taken hold in relations between the divided sides. It appears the “Alliance of the Sahel'' will not break easily. This new coalition is exerting pressure not only on their West African neighbors, but also to the East as anti-French protests gain traction in Chad, the Central African Republic, and Gabon.
Russia’s Grand Strategy
While burning and stomping France’s tricolor, Africa’s anti-France demonstrations often prominently feature another red, white, and blue flag: Russia’s. Russia has become a symbol of resistance against western imperialism across the continent. While some Russian influence has been peddled through various conferences and state meetings, the true power of Russia has been propagated by a much less formal institution, the Wagner Private Military Company. Wagner, internationally recognized for their costly offensives in the Ukraine War and their subsequent, infamous march on Moscow, has played a significant role in the chaotic upheaval in the region.
In the years preceding his assassination at the hands of the Russian State, Prigozhin, former head of Wagner, served Putin’s interests by mobilizing his company in many African nations. In fact, two days prior to his death, Progozhin released a video of him brandishing a kalashnikov in the Sahel, claiming he was: “making Russia even greater on all continents, and Africa even more free”.
The group managed ‘security’ for African leaders and militaries, training their forces while leading raids on rebels, islamists, and dissident groups. In exchange for their assistance, Wagner was given mineral resource rights and lucrative mining contracts. While the extent Wagner played in organizing the anti-French Sahel coups is unclear, they certainly seized the opportunity in the aftermath. Wagner quickly formed partnerships with the ruling juntas in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, offering a new approach to combating islamic militancy in the region while bolstering and protecting the Russian-sympathizing insurrectionists.
Wagner’s novel approach? Extreme brutality and ruthlessness. A report from the UN shows that one 2022 Wagner mission in Mali resulted in a mass rape and the execution of 500 civilians who were living in an area associated with an islamic rebel group. To further solidify their dominance in the region, Wagner is attempting to overthrow the new coup government of Chad, as they are one of the few nations in the region still cooperating with France. The Wagner Group, increasingly absorbed by the Russian intelligence services, appear to be escalating operations.
Official government-to-government partnerships are also being forged. Putin has met with and offered assistance to the Sahel coup leaders. In July, he signed an agreement with Burkina Faso’s Traoré to construct a nuclear power plant and just days ago he signed a military pact with Niger’s leader, Ali Lamine Zeine. Across the Sahel in Sudan, Putin is working with the embattled General Dagalo to construct a Russian naval base on the Red Sea, whose geographic significance has been highlighted by the Yemen-Houthi shipping crisis.
To avoid being perceived as another colonial European power coming to steal Africa’s wealth, Putin has utilized terms of the decolonization movement, preaching global solidarity against imperialism. So far he has convinced many post-coup states to accept that the enemy of their enemy is indeed a friend. Emerging as a clear winner in the battle for influence on the continent, Russia has masterfully intertwined their interests with those of the unelected juntas.
China and the United States
China and the United States also have vested interests in the Sahel’s future. For China, their global infrastructure project, the Belt & Road Initiative, has injected billions in the region. However, the Chinese State and private ventures were put on hold as coups unfolded. In Gabon, the deposition of 56 years of Bongo family rule interrupted Chinese plans for a new naval base on the Atlantic. China has continually stressed the need for dialogue and negotiation before relations can be fully restored as usual. Although some regional partnerships are slowly seeing reengagement, China has taken a much more cautious approach overall.
Their investments are also hampered by numerous difficulties facing the Belt & Road. Chinese domestic crises in unemployment, manufacturing, and a looming housing collapse weigh on the minds of decision makers and have led them to commit less and less in recent years to their Africa initiatives.
The United States has managed to retain some influence and military presence in the region despite the ejection of France and their public condemnation of the coups. In Niger and Chad, American special operatives continue to hunt jihadists in the desert with the consent of the ruling governments. In addition, reports are surfacing that American private military contractors are being hired to engage in missions on the African continent. Among the alleged groups involved is Academi (formerly Blackwater), renowned for their role in war crimes in Iraq, and the security contractor CACI, who were sued for torture in Abu Gharib. The scale of these operations is a mystery, however, one could reasonably speculate that shadowy American mercenary groups are being hired to repel Russian ones. Across the continent, a secret war is spreading.
Time to say Adieu
A clear winner and loser have emerged in the geopolitical realm. Russia has gained several key strategic alliances while France has seen a near complete collapse of their regional influence. The economic implications for France have yet to be fully realized, but will be significant. Their key source of uranium, Niger, has ended relations and many of their multinationals are at risk of complete asset seizure as coup governments float nationalization. Economically, the coups also threaten the future of the CFA Franc currency which provided France with extraordinary advantages in trade relations with former-colonies and gave them unique leverage over African states. The currency order, once used by 14 West African nations, is now on the verge of falling apart.
To make matters worse for Paris, the anti-French protest movement is accelerating in the remaining aligned countries. In a worst case scenario for Les Français, insurrections could spread to Senegal, Ivory Coast and Benin. If this happens, France would lose all of their remaining allies in Africa. Macron has conceded that the tide has turned, grimly stating that his nation's era in Africa could be over.
Foreign policy aside, the current crisis will certainly have economic and political ramifications within France. Roughly five million French citizens are of Sub-Saharan African ancestry, and increasing anti-imperialist protests in Africa could jump the Mediterranean to marginalized populations in France. Riots mainly involving North-African French citizens plunged the nation into weeks of chaos in 2023, and cost the French State close to a billion euros. The ghosts of France’s colonial past are beginning to haunt them, potentially to the tune of billions of euros.
“We have to be honest and acknowledge that a big part of the money in our banks comes precisely from the exploitation of the African continent. Without Africa, France will slide down to the rank of a Third World power”
-Former President of France Jacques Chirac
The Future of the Sahel and Africa
The path forward for the nations of the ‘Coup Belt’ will be one of tremendous hardship. Promises of democratic elections have been postponed as coup leaders contend with an escalating conflict. Islamist attacks have increased in the wake of the overthrows as the internal struggle against the terror groups rages on. Some of the worst fears regarding the coup effects have been realized, as Mali’s major cities of Gao and Timbuktu are now facing total siege by islamists. This could trigger yet another coup or potentially the complete unraveling of the Malian nation.
Potential famines loom as conflict and drought have destroyed regional agriculture. These insecurities have been worsened in recent years as the “Alliance of the Sahel” has been cut off from billions in development aid from the EU and Western organizations. Regionally, ECOWAS has also refuted the coup states, sanctioning them and limiting trade. Aid organizations have stressed that the situation has never been worse.
The Sahel’s humanitarian catastrophe will be extremely difficult for the new governments to overcome. Some contend that the coup leaders are nothing more than authoritarian Russian puppets, bound to plunge their nations into further poverty and suffering through isolation and repression. Others view the new leaders optimistically, believing Presidents such as Traoré will lead the Sahel to a new future of security, sovereignty and prosperity. The late Thomas Sankara once reflected,
“You cannot carry out change without a certain amount of madness”.
What's happening in Africa right now will affect the world. But since Africans have never mattered to the West except to abuse, the West isn't ringing the alarm bell. France, as its black empire collapses, is going to be flooded with immigrants. Let's hope that the Chinese and Russians do a better job below the Sahara. More than that, let's hope that African leaders and 'leaders' stop putting bribes before nationhood, men before women, and soldiers before childhood.