A Catastrophe in the Making - Syria’s Jihadist Blitzkrieg Closes in on Homs
Islamist militias are bearing down on the regime from the north while Kurdish forces have joined the fight in the east
Islamic rebel forces are bearing down on Homs – Syria’s third largest city – today as their shocking and unprecedented offensive drives towards the capital of Damascus. Cities which took the forces of Syrian dictator Bashar Al-Assad years to capture are falling in a matter of hours as the greatest threat to his reign rises more than thirteen long years after the revolution began.
Leading the charge is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Al-Qaeda offshoot which has endeavoured to redefine itself as a solely domestic liberation group for “all Syrians”. At its head, the ambitious and charismatic Abu Mohammad al-Jolani who has vowed to remove Assad and create a Syria which respects the will of the people under “Islamic governance”.
Serious doubts linger over this proposed new government as Jolani was once a close ally of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the notorious leader of ISIS, and has directed his forces to committ suicide bombings, prisoner executions, and to enforce sharia law upon Chrisitians in the Idlib region. HTS is considered a terrorist organisation by the UK and the US.
As HTS fighters swept into Aleppo last week, they were filmed toppling and stomping on Christmas trees which were later put back up upon Jolani’s demand. Feigning tolerance, as the Taliban did in the initial days after taking Kabul, HTS are hoping to shore up goodwill while the world’s eyes are upon them. Many of Syria’s Christians, minorities, and women remain deeply fearful of the group despite their initial PR efforts.
Notorious for its complexity, the current conflict is far from a simple divide between rebel and regime. Other notable groups, such as the Turkish-funded Syrian National Army (SNA) have gone on the offensive against both Assad and the Kurdish Syria Democratic Forces (SDF) with Erdogan’s air power at their disposal. This group has placed less emphasis on a public relations department and has been filmed in the past days beating and corralling Kurdish women into the backs of pickup trucks in horrific scenes reminiscent of October 7th. Semi-allied with HTS for now, the SNA are a serious player and have consolidated significant territory in their campaign against the Kurds.
Having survived the genocidal rampage of ISIS, the US-supported Kurdish SDF are no strangers to wartime strategy and have mobilised to counter the SNA while manoeuvring in the East to capture vast swaths of oil-rich territory abandoned by the fleeing Assadists.
If Syria was not already a prime example of Balkanization in the conflict’s dormant stage, it most certainly is now as Druze ethnic militias behind Assad’s frontlines have also taken the opportunity to seize Southern cities and towns to form their own rebel states. ISIS is also rearing its head once again, launching successful attacks against regime positions in the desert for the first time in years.
While many in regime-held territory are jubilant at the prospect of Assad’s deposal, many others are stricken by panic. Miles-long lines of civilian cars have jammed freeways out of Homs as the Islamists close in from the north. It appears that like Aleppo and Hama before it, Homs will also be abandoned without a fight as regime forces retreat to defend Latakia, the coastal Alawite homeland of Assad, and to Damascus, the capital which has never fallen to rebel forces. Anxiety must be high even in these fortified regime strongholds however, as the Syrian Army has never experienced such rapid and decisive defeats as it has in the last week.
Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah played saviours for Assad when his regime faced collapse before. This time however, as the coalition’s resources and resolve are depleted. Russia has invested billions and has conducted tens of thousands of airstrikes to defend Assad over the last decade. But it’s tied up elsewhere, and the challenge is daunting. In response to the rebel’s conquering of Aleppo, Russia refrained from a massive reaction, instead doing what they’ve done for years — punishing the civilians of Idlib with errant strikes on hospitals and neighbourhoods. For the first time, Russia has requested it’s citizens to immediately leave Syria.
Hezbollah, deeply wounded and expended by the perilous war with Israel, is hardly in fighting shape for a large deployment to counter the HTS assault. Iran tried to direct large convoys of Iraqi Shia militias to Assad’s aid early this week, but it appears numerous vehicles of this cohort were destroyed by US A-10 gun runs.
While they may not be rushing to a resounding defense of the Syrian regime, do not be fooled into thinking these allies of Assad’s have nothing to lose. In fact, the fall of Assad could unwind Iran’s entire regional influence across the Levant and could spell doom for Putin’s operations there as well.
As a notable Russian once said, “there are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen”. This is one of those weeks for Syria and the entire Middle East.